Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently described the assassinated Iranian Quds Force general Qassem Suleimani as a "dedicated warrior" and a "master strategist" who found a way to sway his audiences, whether fighters in the Iraqi desert or in meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.
A year on from the US strike that killed Suleimani near Baghdad airport, experts say Iran is still reeling from the loss of its master strategist but also that the US has not established “the real deterrence” it had sought from the operation.
Suleimani was no average spymaster for Tehran.
He was the linchpin that connected Iran’s proxy networks from Baghdad to Sanaa. A fluent Arabic speaker, a ruthless military operator who expanded the Quds Force reach into Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and deep into Lebanon after the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
One year since his killing, one author who chronicled Suleimani’s life says he is irreplaceable and that Iran has acknowledged that.
Qassem Suleimani has proven to be irreplaceable … the regime has accepted that Soleimani was simply irreplaceable and has downgraded the position of Quds Force commander to more of a coordinator
"Qassem Suleimani has proven to be irreplaceable ... the regime [in Iran] has accepted that Suleimani was simply irreplaceable and has downgraded the position of Quds Force commander to more of a co-ordinator," says Arash Azizi, author of Shadow Commander: Soleimani, US and Iran's Global Ambition.
Brig Gen Ismail Qaani, Suleimani’s deputy, stepped into the role as head of the Quds Force, but has failed to pick up the many strands of Iranian influence in the region, including in exerting influence over Iraqi militias that his former boss cultivated and built.
"Not only [does] Qaani lack the charisma, when it comes to the personal relationship with Arab militias and the operational know-how he is no match for his predecessor," Mr Azizi tells The National.
“Suleimani was able to command a transnational army of thousands of soldiers; he famously was capable of having breakfast in Tehran, lunch in Baghdad and dinner in Beirut or Damascus,” the expert says.
Suleimani’s personal relations – the footage of him paying condolences to families of dead fighters, having tea with Arab tribes and counselling Hezbollah members – made him indispensable in that role.
“There were instances in which he went to Hezbollah's leadership and asked for a dozen field commanders to be sent to Iraq immediately. He could do this because he had a personal relationship with many of these people and because he was able to move seamlessly between the battlegrounds,” Mr Azizi says.
In contrast, Brig Gen Qaani has reportedly been to Iraq only twice in the past year and is under bigger financial constraints because of the effect of sanctions on Iran.
Still, the Iranian regime has managed to maintain its influence in other ways in areas that Suleimani commanded.
They have increased attacks on US interests in Iraq, maintained levers of power in Damascus and Beirut as well as continued to supply weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.
This runs against the Trump administration’s argument that the assassination of Suleimani would restore deterrence, curb Tehran from killing Americans and discourage Iran’s malign regional activities.
Ariane Tabatabai, a Middle East fellow at the Alliance For Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, says she saw little to no change in Iranian behaviour in the year since the killing of Suleimani.
“We tend to forget that two Americans were killed [in a rocket attack in Iraq] back in March, and from the recent reporting, it doesn’t seem like the proxies are trying to minimise casualties in their attacks,” Ms Tabatabai says.
"None of that screams deterrence success ... and in terms of the impact of Suleimani's death for Iran, strategically, as we expected, there hasn't been a shift," says the author of No Conquest, No Defeat.
The expert acknowledges the operational void that Suleimani left, and that it has not been “smooth sailing” for Brig Gen Qaani.
But she also points out that the decision-makers in Tehran could be waiting Mr Trump out before deciding their next operational road map with a new administration.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, says that in assassinating Suleimani, “the US removed Iran’s most feared and competent battlefield commander”.
Although, rather than a deterrence, he says “one must not underestimate the regime’s thirst for revenge but so far it has held back on the correct assumptions that Trump would respond severely and that Biden is committed to returning to the JCPOA and lifting the most powerful economic sanctions”.
But he says Iran could be miscalculating in assuming that president-elect Joe Biden would completely flip the table on Mr Trump’s strategy.
“The regime may calculate that it’s better to wait to first get hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into their coffers before launching any revenge attack to Suleimani’s killing, but they may also assume, wrongly, that a Biden administration would be less likely to respond to an attack against Americans,” Mr Dubowitz says.
The money that the expert is referencing would be from sanctions relief if the Biden administration agrees to return to the nuclear deal that Mr Trump abandoned in 2018.
Colin Clarke, a senior research fellow at The Soufan Centre, says he sees the argument of deterrence being weakened by Mr Trump's downsizing of the number of US troops in Iraq and withdrawing 500 personnel by January 15.
“As the US draws down its forces in Iraq, Iran is increasing its influence, which means that many Iran-backed Iraqi militias will be further emboldened,” Mr Clarke says.
“Iran still regularly attacks US interests in Iraq through its proxy forces, has grown its foreign fighter network throughout the region, still supplies Houthi rebels in Yemen with increasingly sophisticated weaponry, and Hezbollah remains among the most capable violent non-state actors in the world,” Mr Clarke says.
While the Suleimani killing may have derailed Iran operationally, the strategic long game of expanding its proxy influence and testing the Biden team is the one that looms large a year on from the assassination.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
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The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
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Al Wasl Football Club; six teams, five-a-side
Delhi Dragons: Ronaldinho
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Cherry
Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo
Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo
1/5
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- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
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- 600-seat auditorium
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- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
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- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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SPECS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Generational responses to the pandemic
Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:
Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.
Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
